A Look at the Changing Betting Odds for the 2021 NHL Hart Trophy
The Hart Trophy in the NHL has been awarded by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association to the league’s most valuable player every year since 1926. Thanks to a landmark ruling by the Supreme Court in May 2018, individuals in 22 states can place futures bets on particular players to win the award at any point in the NHL season.
Sportsbooks change odds for players based on recent performance and, as a result, there is generally more value in betting on the favorites prior to the season as opposed to late in the season. With that in mind, here’s a look at the top six Hart Trophy favorites as of April 27 and how their respective odds have altered throughout the course of the season.
Connor McDavid (-1500)
A three-time All-Star and two-time winner of the Art Ross Trophy, Connor McDavid was the youngest player to win the Hart Trophy at just 20 years old in 2016–17. He finished top-five in Hart Trophy voting in each of the following three seasons and, considering FanDuel’s (-1500) odds, is poised to win his second Hart Trophy this season.
Bettors on April 27 needed to wager $1,500 just to win $100 if McDavid were to win the award. In contrast, the 24-year-old center had (+700) odds as of December 15, 2020. A $1,500 wager on the Edmonton Oilers superstar at that point would have won bettors $10,500.
McDavid had (-) moneyline odds since early March and has been the favorite to win the Hart Trophy throughout the season. As of April 27, he led all players in assists (53) and points (81) through only 46 regular season games. He recorded 100 points in 82 games when he won the Hart Trophy in 2016–17.
“If the door was open even the tiniest crack for another player to enter the Hart Trophy discussion in the final weeks of the NHL season, Connor McDavid slammed it shut Monday,” wrote Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic after McDavid’s four-point performance in his team’s 6–1 victory over the Edmonton Oilers.
Auston Matthews (+950)
Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews is the only player to really challenge McDavid as the betting favorite for the Hart Trophy this season. FanDuel gave Matthews (+1600) odds at the beginning of the season, but the 2016–17 Calder Trophy winner’s impressive start to the season earned him consideration among bettors.
He had seven goals in his past four games as of February 22, at which point his average odds among sportsbooks were (+288). McDavid had (+173) average odds on February 22. Matthews’ odds on FanDuel, however, were (+950) on April 27. He led the league in goals (34) and had 58 points in 44 games at this point.
Sidney Crosby (+1100)
One of the best players of all-time, Sidney Crosby is a three-time Stanley Cup winner, three-time Ted Lindsay Award winner, two-time Maurice Richard Trophy winner, and two-time recipient of the Hart Trophy.
Like McDavid, he won the award for the first time in his second year in the league; Crosby recorded a league-best 120 points during the 2006–07 season. He won the award a second time in 2013–14 after recording a league-best 104 points.
He had average odds of (+2300) in December 2020 to win the Hart Trophy this season. Those odds lowered to (+1100) on FanDuel as of April 27.
Patrick Kane (+1500)
The winner of the Hart Trophy in 2015–16, Patrick Kane registered a league-best 106 points in 82 games that season. He has continued to produce near or at a point-per-game pace in each of the following four seasons and had 58 points through the first 48 regular season games in 2020–21.
His average odds were (+5500) in December 2020, but lowered to (+390) by March 23. Those odds rose to (+1500) on FanDuel as of April 27 as McDavid began separating himself from the other contenders.
Mikko Rantanen (+2600)
Colorado Avalanche star Mikko Rantanen is one of two players with (+1600) odds on FanDuel as of April 27. The 24-year-old Finnish right winger had 52 points in 43 games at this time. Interestingly, his teammate Nathan MacKinnon opened as the favorite to win the award at (+650) on November 9, 2020. MacKinnon had (+4800) odds by April 27.
Victor Hedman (+2600)
The only defenseman among FanDuel’s top-14 betting favorites for the Hart Trophy, Victor Hedman of the Tampa Bay Lightning is a four-time All-Star and one-time winner of the Norris Trophy as the league’s best defender. He also won the Stanley Cup with the Lightning in 2020 and received the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoff MVP.
Hedman had (+8500) odds to win the Hart Trophy in December 2020, but those odds lowered to (+2600) on FanDuel given his impressive performance. He was second in scoring among defensemen as of April 27 and considered a favorite to win the Norris Trophy for the second time in his career.
