6 Useful Tips for Betting on Baseball in 2021
The 2021 Major League Baseball (MLB) season is expected to begin on time and teams will again play 162 games barring any unforeseen circumstances. Last year, teams were limited to 60 regular season games due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, spring training was suspended, games were postponed due to positive tests, and some players even opted out citing personal health reasons.
This not only affected competitive balance for the 2020 MLB season, but also made betting on baseball a little trickier than in years past. With all things expected to be equal in 2021, below are six evidence-based tips to consider when wagering on MLB games this season.
1. Bet Listed Pitcher
Similar to a quarterback in football or a goaltender in soccer or hockey, the starting pitcher has a significant impact on the outcome of a baseball game. A position player can have a bad game and his team can still win, whereas if a pitcher plays poorly it typically means the other team will have scored several runs. Because of the pitcher’s impact, those betting on MLB games have the option to bet either “action” or “listed pitcher.”
By choosing the latter, bettors are protected against instances in which the scheduled starting pitcher of a game doesn’t take the mound due to either injury or other reasons. One might place a wager on a particular team to win because their starting pitcher is among the best in the league. In this case, it wouldn’t be fair to the bettor if that pitcher was replaced at the last minute by a starting pitcher with less talent. Listed pitcher bets are voided if either starting pitcher doesn’t play as anticipated.
2. Avoid Moneyline Favorites
Generally, the betting public, or at least casual bettors, back the team with the better record. Sportsbooks understand this and skew the moneyline odds toward those teams to the point where there’s little value in betting on them. Heavy favorites are generally listed at (-150) or higher, meaning one must bet $150 just to win $100. In contrast, placing a successful $150 wager on an underdog at (+130) would result in a $195 profit.
Using its Bet Labs software, Action Network analyzed favorites listed at (-150) or higher from 2005 to 2018. These teams won 63.4 percent of games, yet bettors who wagered $100 on every favorite in this time would have lost $21,836 given the relative lack of payout.
3. Avoid Underdogs on the Runline
The runline in baseball is an alternative name for the spread. This is in essence a betting option that attempts to even the odds between a pair of teams by creating a run differential.
Favorites, for instance, are typically listed at (-1.5), meaning they need to win the game by at least two runs to cover the runline. While it’s not advised to consistently wager on the favorites in the moneyline, it’s less risky to do so on the runline. Conversely, there is more value in betting the underdog on the moneyline.
4. Prioritize Divisional Underdogs
The most betting value can be found in moneyline underdog bets, but bettors need to be strategic about where they place these wagers. Underdogs had a combined win-loss record of 14,490–19,499 from 2005 to 2018 for a 42.6 win percentage.
However, when considering only divisional matchups, underdogs had a win percentage of 43.3 percent (6,693–8,755). While this is a losing percentage, it would have actually net $5,134 for those who bet $100 on each of those games given the plus-money payouts.
5. AL Teams Favored in Interleague Play
Another smart bet based on past history is wagering on American League (AL) teams to beat National League (NL) teams in interleague play. Teams play 20 interleague games per season and, since 2005, AL teams have won 54.3 percent of these matchups.
These teams have an advantage based on style of play, rules, and roster construction. The AL has even won seven consecutive All-Star Games and has a combined record of 19–3–1 in the last 23 games.
6. Consider Wind
There are several factors to consider when wagering on a baseball game. The starting pitcher plays a crucial role in the outcome, and other factors including win streaks, player hot streaks, and even umpires should be considered.
Beyond the players and officials, bettors should also be familiar with the expected weather conditions for a game. This will particularly impact the over/under, which is a bet on the total amount of combined runs scored in a particular game.
Games played in conditions where the wind is blowing in from the outfield are more likely to be under than over as hard-hit balls are less likely to carry for home runs. The under won 55.1 percent of the time from 2005 to 2018 in games played with the wind blowing in at 5 miles per hour or more.
